Wednesday, January 12, 2005
Heating up
Updated 10:53pm (Mla time) Jan 10, 2005
Editor's Note: Published on page A10 of the January 11, 2005 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer.
THE RECENT tsunami disaster, the fatal heat wave in Europe in 2003 and the stronger and more violent storms that have hit various parts of the earth in the past four or five years should set the world thinking about the abrupt climate and geological changes and what could be done about them.
Scientists are agreed: Global warming and climate change are no longer in the realm of computer forecasts; they are very much upon us. Among the signs of these changes are:
• The heating up of the world -- the temperature has risen one degree F over the past century. The 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 was the warmest year on instrumental record.
• The melting of glaciers and breaking up of ice shelves -- snow cover and ice extent have decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s.
• The rise in sea level -- the rate of global average sea level rise during the 20th century is in the range of 1 to 2 millimeters per year, with a central value of 1.5 mm/year.
• Increase in global ocean heat content since the late 1950s, the period for which adequate observation of sub-surface ocean temperatures have been available.
• A shift in seasons -- shorter winters, the earlier arrival of spring, hotter summers and fiercer heat waves and the later arrival of autumn. (The heat wave in Europe in 2003 killed 35,000 people.)
• Longer periods of drought -- warmer episodes of El Niño have been more frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970s, compared with the previous 100 years.
• The drying up of rivers and streams, shrinking of lakes and the erosion of the coasts.
• The bleaching and dying of coral reefs, depriving fish of habitats -- 1998 was the worst year on record, when 16 percent of the world's coral was left bleached or dead.
• Changes in the animal kingdom -- habitats change, plants flower earlier, birds nest earlier, exotic species appear and amphibians are disappearing.
• The fast spread of diseases.
• Changes in the intensity and frequency of storms. Conflicting analyses, however, make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions, especially on extra-tropical or hurricane activity.
These data are telling scientists -- and us -- that the earth is definitely heating up and that climate is changing. Scientists agree that the burning of fossil fuels like oil and coal causes greenhouse gases to escape into the air and these gases are causing most of the global warming. Another major cause is deforestation, for trees absorb carbon dioxide, one of the greenhouse gases, from the air.
Global warming is very difficult to solve. It is very easy to say that everyone should use less energy, but a growing, developing world requires the use of more energy, and fossil fuels, particularly, at this time.
The Kyoto Protocol offers a start toward the solution of the problem. It would commit the parties to individual, legally binding targets to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. But although 84 countries signed the protocol, indicating that they intended to ratify it, many were reluctant to do so and thus bring it into force. One of the reluctant countries is the United States, which should be exercising moral and political leadership in solving global warming but is not.
Even the Kyoto Protocol does not offer the ultimate solution. Jeremy Mahlman of the US National Center for Atmosphere Research said that controlling the increase in greenhouse gas emissions "would take 40 successful Kyotos. But we've got to do it."
A long-term solution would be a fundamental change in the way the world powers its economy, shifting from uncontrolled use of fossil fuels to an increased and more efficient use of renewable sources of energy such as the sun, wind, water, waves and the heat coming from the bowels of the earth (geothermal).
The way has been pointed out by the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 with the adoption of Agenda 21, a wide-ranging blueprint for action to achieve sustainable development. Although Agenda 21 has been watered down by negotiation and compromise, it is considered the most comprehensive and effective program of action approved by the international community.
Global warming and climate and geological change have become very urgent and immediate social and personal concerns, as the shocking death tolls from the horrific tsunami, fierce storms, massive floods and long droughts have testified. The world cannot wait for the oceans to boil or for hell to freeze over before all nations join hands in taking aggressive action on global warming. It has to start now.
